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Methodology

How projects are prepared, classified and evidenced

Two ladders govern everything published here. Readiness records how far a project has been prepared. Data confidence records how well evidenced each individual figure is. Neither is decorative.

Data Confidence

Seven levels, applied to every figure

A reader should never have to guess whether a number is measured, modelled or aspirational. The level says which.

Verified

Confirmed against a named primary source held on file. The figure may be relied upon as stated.

Validated Estimate

Produced by a completed study and reviewed independently. Accurate within the tolerance the study states.

Preliminary Estimate

An early order-of-magnitude figure, subject to feasibility work. Not a budget and not a commitment.

Target

A planning objective adopted for the program. It describes intent, not an achieved or committed result.

Illustrative Scenario

A modelled scenario shown to explain a mechanism. The values are illustrative and are not a forecast.

Under Study

Work is in progress and no defensible figure exists yet. Deliberately shown without a number.

Concept

An identified opportunity described at concept level only. No study has yet been commissioned.

Two rules follow from this. First, a figure published without a confidence level is a defect, and is treated as one. Second, where no defensible figure exists, the platform prints the confidence level instead of a number — an “under study” is more useful to a diligence team than a placeholder that reads as a budget.

Readiness

Eleven steps, each with its evidence

A project is recorded at a step only when the evidence for that step exists and is on file. Presentation quality is never a reason to advance one.

NBP-0

Opportunity Identified

A development need has been recorded and attributed to a sector.

Evidence required

A written statement of the need and its origin.

NBP-1

Initial Screening

The opportunity has been screened for strategic fit and obvious blockers.

Evidence required

A completed screening note against the national priorities.

NBP-2

Concept Development

A concept describes the intervention, its beneficiaries and its components.

Evidence required

A concept note setting out scope, location and intended outcome.

NBP-3

Pre-Feasibility

Technical and commercial viability have been tested at order-of-magnitude level.

Evidence required

A pre-feasibility study with an indicative cost range.

NBP-4

Feasibility

Full feasibility confirms the technical, financial and environmental case.

Evidence required

A completed feasibility study and environmental and social screening.

NBP-5

Engineering & Approvals

Design is advanced and statutory approvals are being obtained.

Evidence required

Preliminary engineering design and a live approvals register.

NBP-6

Commercial Structuring

Delivery model, ownership and risk allocation are being settled.

Evidence required

A commercial structure paper and draft risk allocation matrix.

NBP-7

Financing

The project is being matched with suitable public, private or development capital.

Evidence required

A financing plan and a documented investor engagement record.

NBP-8

Investment Ready

Preparation is complete and the opportunity can be taken to market.

Evidence required

A complete investment passport and a populated data room.

NBP-9

Delivery / Construction

Procurement has concluded and implementation is under way.

Evidence required

An executed contract and a live delivery reporting line.

NBP-10

Operational

The asset or service is in operation and being measured.

Evidence required

Commissioning certificate and reported operating performance.